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Citizens’ Mid-term Perceptions on Government Performance

Introduction to the PACE 2018 Public Opinion Poll

In May 2018, PACE is preparing to conduct a nationwide survey to assess citizen’s opinions on the current government’s performance. This year marks the half-way point of the five-year term of the National League for Democracy (NLD) government, which took office in 2016. Economic development, national reconciliation and peace process, and constitutional reform were the most popular items in its campaign manifesto among citizens. Therefore, PACE is seeking to probe how citizens would measure the performance of the NLD government for the last two half years.

The Goals of the Survey

PACE hopes that this survey provides valuable information to public servants as they prepare for the second half of the current government term, as well as to political parties preparing their platforms for the 2020 elections and civic organizations advocating for additional democratic reforms.

Methodology

To better understand public opinion on citizen’s mid-term perceptions of government performance, PACE will survey citizens of Myanmar who were 18 and above at the time of the survey. To capture the opinions across Myanmar, PACE will conduct the survey in all states and regions. The survey will be conducted in a total of 424 villages and wards in 214 townships. The survey involves face-to-face interviews with 2,100 respondents for the national sample and 264 more respondents for states oversample.

The survey will be conducted according to internationally recognized methods of random statistical sampling as detailed below.

Step 1: Stratification by township. Using data from the 2017 population projection by Myanmar Population and Housing Census, PACE calculated the proportion of adult population in each township and allocated the same proportion of survey locations in that township.

Step 2: Stratification by urban and rural. Using population information described above, PACE calculated the proportion of urban and rural population within each township. Based on the proportion within each township, PACE allocated the same proportion of survey locations between urban wards and rural villages.

Step 3: Random sample of villages and wards. Based on the allocations for each township and allocations for urban and rural locations, PACE selected wards and villages using simple random sampling. PACE used a list of wards and villages in each township compiled by the Myanmar Information Management Unit (MIMU) as a sampling frame. A total of 424 villages and wards were selected as target survey locations for the sample, including 374 in the nationwide sample and 154 in an oversample of states.

Step 4: Random household selection. Trained enumerators will travel to survey locations where they will randomly select households using a random walk sampling method beginning in a randomly selected starting point. Enumerators will select every 10th residence in rural locations (villages) and every 20th residence in urban locations (wards).

Step 5: Random respondent selection. Once a household has been selected, PACE enumerators will randomly select a resident (male and female alternatively) of that household who was over 18 or above and a citizen of Myanmar. Respondents will be selected using the “lucky draw” method. In total, each PACE enumerator will be tasked to interview six respondents in each village/ward location.

Step 6: Analysis. Following data collection, the data will be weighted by non-response in state/region and rural/urban to bring the realized sample in line with the actual distribution in Myanmar. There may be slight variation between numbers presented due to rounding where the difference is never greater than one percent.

 

Citizens’ Mid-term Perceptions on Government Performance
September 2018
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